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Phytoplankton exhibit diverse physiological responses to temperature which influence their fitness in the environment and consequently alter their community structure. Here, we explored the sensitivity of phytoplankton community structure to thermal response parameterization in a modelled marine phytoplankton community. Using published empirical data, we evaluated the maximum thermal growth rates (μ_max) and temperature coefficients (Q₁₀; the rate at which growth scales with temperature) of six key Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs): coccolithophores, cyanobacteria, diatoms, diazotrophs, dinoflagellates, and green algae. Following three well‐documented methods, PFTs were either assumed to have (1) the sameμ_maxand the sameQ₁₀(as in to Eppley, 1972), (2) a uniqueμ_maxbut the sameQ₁₀(similar to Kremer et al., 2017), or (3) a uniqueμ_maxand a uniqueQ₁₀(following Anderson et al., 2021). These trait values were then implemented within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology biogeochemistry and ecosystem model (called Darwin) for each PFT under a control and climate change scenario. Our results suggest that applying aμ_maxandQ₁₀universally across PFTs (as in Eppley, 1972) leads to unrealistic phytoplankton communities, which lack diatoms globally. Additionally, we find that accounting for differences in theQ₁₀between PFTs can significantly impact each PFT's competitive ability, especially at high latitudes, leading to altered modeled phytoplankton community structures in our control and climate change simulations. This then impacts estimates of biogeochemical processes, with, for example, estimates of export production varying by ~10% in the Southern Ocean depending on the parameterization. Our results indicate that the diversity of thermal response traits in phytoplankton not only shape community composition in the historical and future, warmer ocean, but that these traits have significant feedbacks on global biogeochemical cycles.

 

Ocean chlorophyll time series exhibit temporal variability on a range of timescales due to environmental change, ecological interactions, dispersal, and other factors. The differences in chlorophyll temporal variability observed at stationary locations (Eulerian perspective) or following water parcels (Lagrangian perspective) are poorly understood. Here we contrasted the temporal variability of ocean chlorophyll in these two observational perspectives, using global drifter trajectories and satellite chlorophyll to generate matched pairs of Eulerian‐Lagrangian time series. We found that for most ocean locations, chlorophyll variances measured in Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives are not statistically different. In high latitude areas, the two perspectives may capture similar variability due to the large spatial scale of chlorophyll patches. In localized regions of the ocean, however, chlorophyll variability measured in these two perspectives may significantly differ. For example, in some western boundary currents, temporal chlorophyll variability in the Lagrangian perspective was greater than in the Eulerian perspective. In these cases, the observing platform travels rapidly across strong environmental gradients and constrained by the shelf topography, potentially leading to greater Lagrangian variability in chlorophyll. In contrast, we found that Eulerian chlorophyll variability exceeded Lagrangian variability in some key upwelling zones and boundary current extensions. In these cases, variability in the nutrient supply may generate intermittent chlorophyll anomalies in the Eulerian perspective, while the Lagrangian perspective sees the transport of such anomalies off‐shore. These findings aid with the interpretation of chlorophyll time series from different sampling methodologies, inform observational network design, and guide validation of marine ecosystem models.

 

The ecological and oceanographic processes that drive the response of pelagic ocean microbiomes to environmental changes remain poorly understood, particularly in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Here we show that seasonal and interannual variability in coastal upwelling predicts pelagic ocean microbiome diversity and community structure in the Southern California Current region. Ribosomal RNA gene sequencing, targeting prokaryotic and eukaryotic microbes, from samples collected seasonally during 2014-2020 indicate that nitracline depth is the most robust predictor of spatial microbial community structure and biodiversity in this region. Striking ecological changes occurred due to the transition from a warm anomaly during 2014-2016, characterized by intense stratification, to cooler conditions in 2017-2018, representative of more typical upwelling conditions, with photosynthetic eukaryotes, especially diatoms, changing most strongly. The regional slope of nitracline depth exerts strong control on the relative proportion of highly diverse offshore communities and low biodiversity, but highly productive nearshore communities.

 

As harmful algae blooms are increasing in frequency and magnitude, one goal of a new generation of higher spectral resolution satellite missions is to improve the potential of satellite optical data to monitor these events. A satellite-based algorithm proposed over two decades ago was used for the first time to monitor the extent and temporal evolution of a massive bloom of the dinoflagellate Lingulodinium polyedra off Southern California during April and May 2020. The algorithm uses ultraviolet (UV) data that have only recently become available from the single ocean color sensor on the Japanese GCOM-C satellite. Dinoflagellates contain high concentrations of mycosporine-like amino acids and release colored dissolved organic matter, both of which absorb strongly in the UV part of the spectrum. Ratios <1 of remote sensing reflectance of the UV band at 380 nm to that of the blue band at 443 nm were used as an indicator of the dinoflagellate bloom. The satellite data indicated that an observed, long, and narrow nearshore band of elevated chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations, extending from northern Baja to Santa Monica Bay, was dominated by L. polyedra. In other high Chl-a regions, the ratios were >1, consistent with historical observations showing a sharp transition from dinoflagellate- to diatom-dominated waters in these areas. UV bands are thus potentially useful in the remote sensing of phytoplankton blooms but are currently available only from a single ocean color sensor. As several new satellites such as the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and marine Ecosystem mission will include UV bands, new algorithms using these bands are needed to enable better monitoring of blooms, especially potentially harmful algal blooms, across large spatiotemporal scales. 

In recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) have increased in their severity and extent in many parts of the world and pose serious threats to local aquaculture, fisheries, and public health. In many cases, the mechanisms triggering and regulating HAB events remain poorly understood. Using underwater microscopy and Residual Neural Network (ResNet‐18) to taxonomically classify imaged organisms, we developed a daily abundance record of four potentially harmful algae (Akashiwo sanguinea,Chattonellaspp.,Dinophysisspp., andLingulodinium polyedra) and major grazer groups (ciliates, copepod nauplii, and copepods) from August 2017 to November 2020 at Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier, a coastal location in the Southern California Bight. Random Forest algorithms were used to identify the optimal combination of environmental and ecological variables that produced the most accurate abundance predictions for each taxon. We developed models with high prediction accuracy forA. sanguinea(),Chattonellaspp. (), andL. polyedra(), whereas models forDinophysisspp. showed lower prediction accuracy (). Offshore nutricline depth and indices describing climate variability, including El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, that influence regional‐scale ocean circulation patterns and environmental conditions, were key predictor variables for these HAB taxa. These metrics of regional‐scale processes were generally better predictors of HAB taxa abundances at this coastal location than the in situ environmental measurements. Ciliate abundance was an important predictor ofChattonellaandDinophysisspp., but not ofA. sanguineaandL. polyedra. Our findings indicate that combining regional and local environmental factors with microzooplankton populations dynamics can improve real‐time HAB abundance forecasts.

 

Niche theory suggests that the realized niche occupied by an organism in the field is a subset of the fundamental niche space of the organism, absent additional biotic and abiotic factors. Though often assumed, this discrepancy is rarely tested for specific organisms, and could act as a source of error in model predictions of biogeographical shifts resulting from temperature change which assume niche theory constraints. Here, we quantify the difference between fundamental and realized temperature niches for four dominant ecotypes ofProchlorococcus, including eMED4, eMIT9312, eMIT9313, and eNATL2A, and ask whether the realized temperature niches of each ecotype vary across ocean basins. The realized niches for the four ecotypes are, on average, 3.84°C ± 1.18°C colder (mean ± SD across all ocean basins and ecotypes) and 2.15°C ± 1.89°C wider than the lab‐measured fundamental niches. When divided into four ocean regions—North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, and South Pacific—we find that the realized temperature niche optimum for a given ecotype compared to the fundamental temperature niche optimum differs across regions by as much as 7.93°C, while the niche width can differ by up to 9.48°C. Colder and wider realized niches may be a result of the metabolic risk associated with living in variable environments when the mean temperature is too close to the optimal temperature for growth or due to physical processes such as dispersal. The strong differences in temperature niches across ocean basins suggest that unresolved genetic diversity within ecotypes, local adaptation, and variable interactive ecological and environmental factors are likely to be important in shapingProchlorococcusrealized temperature niches.

 

Modern in situ digital imaging systems collect vast numbers of images of marine organisms and suspended particles. Automated methods to classify objects in these images – largely supervised machine learning techniques – are now used to deal with this onslaught of biological data. Though such techniques can minimize the human cost of analyzing the data, they also have important limitations. In training automated classifiers, we implicitly program them with an inflexible understanding of the environment they are observing. When the relationship between the classifier and the population changes, the computer's performance degrades, potentially decreasing the accuracy of the estimate of community composition. This limitation of automated classifiers is known as “dataset shift.” Here, we describe techniques for addressing dataset shift. We then apply them to the output of a binary deep neural network searching for diatom chains in data generated by the Scripps Plankton Camera System (SPCS) on the Scripps Pier. In particular, we describe a supervised quantification approach to adjust a classifier's output using a small number of human corrected images to estimate the system error in a time frame of interest. This method yielded an 80% improvement in mean absolute error over the raw classifier output on a set of 41 independent samples from the SPCS. The technique can be extended to adjust the output of multi‐category classifiers and other in situ observing systems.